To summarize: I believe Clinton would have brought about a global economic depression on a greater scale than the Great Depression of the 1930’s. In so doing, Canada would stagnate to the point that most of Western Canada would explode with secessionist sentiment.
Initially, I believed Donald Trump’s election would likely cause short term economic volatility (which, with the votes being counted, we are already seeing indications of), but that Trump would be able to bring about recovery the same way the US did during the 1920’s. In so doing, Canada would recover and be prosperous enough to maintain national unity.
While I will not rule that possibility out, one scenario that was not apparent to me in February 2016, when I first wrote that article about Donald Trump, was the possibility of Ontario’s annexation into the United States.
At the time, the Justin Trudeau Carbon Tax was not on the radar, but today it is.
The Carbon Tax is a West to East transfer, especially from Alberta and Saskatchewan, to Ontario and Quebec.
In particular, it does so by raising the cost on fuels, which are then passed to provinces that require long haul transportation.
When an Albertan buys a car manufactured in Windsor – a major input cost of that car is the fuel used transporting that car through the most indirect route possible – the Canadian route. (Incidentally, a car manufactured in Detroit would have a lower carbon footprint than one manufactured in Brampton, but that is exactly the point.)
Trudeau’s Carbon Tax allows the governments of Ontario and Quebec to collect revenue from the fuels needed to drive the trains and trucks needed to transport goods they manufacture and then pass the added cost of the tax onto consumers down the line in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta.
This works for both imports and exports, and for Alberta, one of our most carbon intensive exports are tanker trucks and railway cars loaded with our oil.
Trudeau realized this, and this is one of the reasons he has so actively stymied pipeline initiatives that would allow Alberta to export our crude oil. The amount of fuel required to transport oil by truck and rail car is orders of magnitude higher than the amount needed to transport it by pipeline, and with most of our oil being shipped through Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and British Columbia, the carbon tax transfers huge amounts of Alberta’s wealth to our neighboring provinces.
This is particularly insidious in that it offsets the cost of those province’s carbon taxes they must pay to transport goods into and out from their province for the same reason, making it more palatable for them.
Enter Donald Trump.
As a Separatist, the most important development to be watching in the forthcoming Trump Presidency is Keystone XL.
Trump supported Keystone XL to a much greater degree than Clinton.
Even though he campaigned saying he would “make Canada pay for it,” Alberta’s ability to export crude through Keystone would significantly cut carbon emissions, allowing Alberta to pay significantly less of the carbon tax through inter-province transport via rail or truck.
When Trump approves Keystone XL, the ball will be in Trudeau’s court, and Alberta should be watching very closely.
To be fair, Trudeau is backed into a corner on the issue.
The carbon tax is NOT about fighting climate change. It is a stealth tax to transfer and redistribute wealth away from Western Canada and especially from Alberta to pay for the old, decrepit, stagnating economies of Quebec and Ontario.
The leftist governments of Ontario and Quebec have long since made their bed and in so doing, have chased away (or aborted) their young, productive workers (many of the survivors having moved to Calgary and still, for some reason, voted NDP).
They have promised entitlements and pension plans to their public sector they cannot afford. They have drowned their economy in crippling debt they can never repay.
Now, Ontario especially is a hallowed out husk of it’s former self.
With their political clout gained through their ability to determine the outcome of Federal elections, their only strategy to vote in hacks like Justin Trudeau to try to redistribute the wealth of Western Canada to maintain their status quo.
Simultaneously, to save their collapsing manufacturing industry, they push to import hundreds of thousands of impoverished, virile young men from alien and incompatible cultures to work in their factories.
It is not a strategy that will work at building a unified nation.
I still stand by my assertion that with President Trump, Western Separatist sentiment will likely wane.
However, with President Trump, Ontario may have one option left that could keep it from fading away into the annals of history:
Join the United States.
If Ontario is to survive as a modern, industrialized, developed economy and civilized society, it may have no choice.
Ontarians wouldn’t put up a fight, the way Western Canadians and even Quebecois would.
For the United States, annexing Ontario, Canada’s largest manufacturing center certainly would “Make America Great Again.”
Separatist everywhere in Canada certainly should hope it comes to that.