CBC recently ran a story, highlighting that for the next 2 years, Alberta is expected to lead the country in GDP growth over the next 2 years. (You can read it here)
This is actually terrible news for Alberta, even if it is true.
Our GDP shrunk about 7% over the past 2 years while our population increased about 0.4%.
Coming into the recession, our GDP per capita was about 50% higher than the Canadian average – so even after the worst recession in our provinces history, we are still so much further ahead of the rest of the provinces that we are still out of luck.
This country is governed by socialists – so even though almost everyone in Alberta is hurting, no one is coming to help.
If anything, we still are looking at the Ottawa elites gouging a pound of flesh off our backs, even though our industries are pretty much at their breaking point.
What would be good news for Alberta would be if B.C., Ontario, Quebec saw explosive growth – because all it means for Alberta leading economically is that we are barely keeping our head above water but still being pulled under.
Economics and demographics being what they are, I don’t see that changing until the gig is up and the entire nation goes bankrupt.
Vancouver’s housing bubble is going to burst (if it hasn’t already) dragging B.C. into a catastrophic recession and Ontario/Quebec are going to have a pension crisis that will likely break the camels back on both provinces sub-sovereign debt (likely exacerbated by the Toronto housing market bubble popping at some point soon).
When that happens, the Federal Government is going to be too broke to bail anyone out, but if they do, it will probably be Ontario, Quebec, and possibly Iraq and Syria.
Even if a pipeline across B.C. is approved – what good will it do if tanker’s are banned on the West Coast?
Moreover, as the only province without maritime transport routes or major railway access into the United States, the coming Federal Carbon Tax would more accurately be described as the “Federal Tax on transporting stuff into and out of Alberta.”
If Clinton wins the 2016 elections, Keystone XL is likely stone walled again and Alberta’s oil industry is probably toast. The Americans will switch their refineries to only refine shale and Eastern Canada will have absolutely no reason to buy “Canadian” (that is – Albertan) oil, since the American shale shipped up the east coast will be way cheaper.
Even though I like personally Trump, as a separatist, I am rooting for Clinton.
Trump might be able to turn the ship around and create enough of an American economic revival that Ontario and Quebec actually might see growth again. Unfortunately, all that would do is divert enough of Alberta’s misery to the point that we become complacent again about our role as “the economic engine of the Canada.”
I hate that term – I’d rather Alberta be the engine of the Western Canadian economy. If it is a choice between trading with and helping our immediate neighbors develop versus strangers thousands of kilometers away with no interest or involvement in my affairs, I would take my neighbors.
Shortly after Alberta oil goes belly up, Chinese and American venture capital firms will scoop up Alberta oil companies for pennies on the dollar as everyone in Alberta goes bankrupt and the province goes through an even worse recession than this past one – a Depression greater than the 1930’s.
This time around, instead of having European fascists to distract them, there’s going to be nothing to vent the white hot rage of many Albertans who are so heavily invested into and connected with the province, leaving is not an option.
Regardless, I think within a decade, there is nothing but endless stagnation in Alberta until the point we are “equal” to the rest of Canada – if we are still in Canada at all.