Alberta Separation: What Comes Next?

It is anyone’s guess what would happen when Alberta Separates.  Certainly, after separation, Alberta will face serious challenges but we also will be in a unique situation with leverage to institute positive change, not just for ourselves, but for all Canadians.

In his book, Accidental Superpower (a book I highly recommend), Peter Zeihan proposes that joining the US would solve all of Alberta’s economic problems.

That being said, there actually are numerous possibilities in separation that could create positive outcomes beyond Alberta’s borders.

It could be the case that Alberta Separation could lead the Canadian Government to institute reform unthinkable in the current arrangement.

Constitutional constraints on the government, more clearly defined rights for citizens and more clear enumeration and delegation of responsibilities to provinces.

It might seem improbable, but if Alberta separation brought about that kind of change, it might be desirable for an Independent Alberta to reunite with the entirety of Canada soon after separating.

Failing that, consider a major driver among Albertans in support of separation.  Equalization.

Many (myself included) feel that equalization is nothing more than a scheme to subsidize the stupidity of the Government of Ontario, while bribing the Government of Quebec to suppress Québécois separatism, mostly at Alberta’s expense.

Alberta separation would instantly break the equalization system.

If so, how long would Quebec stay in what is left of Canada?

Quebec would undoubtedly endure a tremendous amount of economic pain.  However, that pain would give the Québécois the ability to reform their economy to be free from the Canadian government themselves.

As much as I as an Albertan despise equalization, the system creates a culture of dependency for all provinces on the receiving end, Quebec especially, which perverts their own economy.  It essentially makes the Québécois financial hostages to the Government of Canada.

Alberta’s separation would end that arrangement and pave the way to Quebec’s independence as well.

If Quebec actually were to separate, what would be the point for any Maritime province to remain in Canada?

Most certainly, an independent Quebec would possess a great deal of leverage in alienating the Maritimes from what is left of Canada.  In such an arrangement it would be in the Maritime provinces’ interests to separate from Canada as well.

If Quebec and the Maritimes were shrewd, they could enter into a coalition or create a new nation outright that could see all of them become a regional economic powerhouse as opposed to economic serfs to Ottawa.

Regardless, if Quebec separated in response to Alberta separation, that changes the game and presents more possibilities for Alberta.

Without equalization, the Government of Ontario, the most indebted sub-sovereign state government on the planet, would have significantly less of a cushion to pay for useless, government make work.

With an aging population, insane amounts of debt, no access to the Atlantic (without permission from a sovereign Quebec – which probably won’t come cheap), and a non-productive manufacturing sector, Ontario’s situation becomes precarious – eventually forcing reform.

Ontario does have some substantial things going for it.

Namely, it’s connectivity to the US markets through the Great Lakes and control of the Canadian financial industry.  Both of which could give Ontario a chance to recover.

Moreover, with the US Shale revolution there is a very strong possibility the United States will disengage from the Middle East in the coming years.  Doing so would cut Eastern Canada off from Middle East oil imports, especially giving an independent Alberta enormous amounts of leverage.

British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba may still be a part of “Canada” at that point.  If so, one possibility would be for Alberta to rejoin and create an “Anglophone-Mainland” Canada, spanning from BC to Ontario.

Another possibility is that British Columbia, Saskatchewan, or both may themselves hold successful referendums for separation.  Maybe they could separate before we do.   Regardless, their separation would present the possibility of forming a new, “Republic of Western Canada” from BC maybe as far as Manitoba.

The underlying point is that there are numerous possibilities that could come about through Alberta separation that could benefit both ourselves and the other Canadian provinces.

The catalyst by which Alberta could gain independence, a provincial referendum, would lay the foundation for how we pursue those possibilities.

Having successfully held a referendum for secession from Canada, Albertans would have fresh in their minds the concept of actually being able to determine their own destiny.

Some might call this liberty.

Something decidedly absent in the current Canadian Confederation that Alberta separation would most certainly end up restoring.

 

 

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15 thoughts on “Alberta Separation: What Comes Next?

  1. Interesting perspective. The current canadian constitution is in lockdown, thanks to papa Trudeau. One comment: a referendum is just a consultation, not a legal act in itself. Do not make the same error as we have. A country or independent state is created by law, not even an overwhelming consultation can do that.

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    1. I’m not so sure, Quebec has not signed the Constitution. That said we don’t have a constitution to date. So I can’t see why Alberta or the other provinces can’t back away & remove there names or province

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      1. Québec is a state and a nation. Canadian provinces are also states, limited in sovereignty by the “agreement” between them, defined by the Canadian constitution. For Ken: the constitution was repatriated from the U.K. without Québec consent. Since then, NO Québec government has signed the constitution. This is imposed on us, just as the “transfer system”. Québec’s borders are defined by the British North American Act, also recognized by international law. Threats of partition are unfounded and inapplicable.
        Québec sends 1,2 billions dollars a week to the central government, mostly from taxes. Not included in this amount, the tarifs charged for use of the Saint-Laurent Seaway and airports, which amounts to billions of $ a year. Being part of Canada costs us money.
        On the remark of “natives”, many are outspoken indépendantistes themselves. However, the independence movement has recognized the right of First Nations to their sovereignty, within our boundaries.
        As for Stidkriss’s comment, it is important for the Western Independence Movement to learn from our experience: No matter what democratic system is put into place for a referendum, the central government will cheat and pump millions of dollars from our (Canadian as a whole) tax dollars to influence the voting results. And even there, in 1995, the No win was less than 1 %.
        We want out of this system, not because we don’t like Canada and Canadians, but because we are different and we want to be free and independent.

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      1. CNN you must be joking watching CNN we can get that for free but its not a good reason for giving away control over all of our natural resources do you think the US would even look at us if we did not have those resources come on man

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  2. Interesting statements, In regards to Quebec I dought they could separate, Keep in mind the natives own most of quebec, North of the populated areas, this would include minerals, gas & oil. I dought that the natives would agree.

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    1. My god you know nothing of politics, in 1995 referendum we got stolen at 49.9 percent of yes because the Federeal camp invested more money then they were allowed. please go look at your history before talking out of your ass, you will just look plain stupid.

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      1. That proves my point don’t you think? The transfer system was imposed on Quebec to cripple them into being unable to separate. The problem is the scam is up and it can’t keep going. All of us are being played for fool’s by Ottawa. All of us should separate. We would all be better off if we did.

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    2. Having Alberta as an independent state would probably be a good idea however allowing the United States to run and freely remove our natural resources such as natural gas cool oil and many other resources could be a very big mistake once we have signed up as being another state of the United States they would have every right to employ their people in our province leaving our oil patch workers unemployed and walk away leaving massive massive in there wake there is a lot of positive things they could do for us however there’s even more negative things they would do to us we should think this over really good

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